How Good Are They: Subban, Markov & Diaz Part 1

Andrei Markov and PK Subban

General Manager Marc Bergevin still has ongoing contract negotiations with defensemen P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov and Raphael Diaz. Subban is an RFA (restricted free agent) after this season, Markov will become a UFA (unrestricted free agent) if not signed at season’s end and if signed will endorse a +35 contract meaning, “Players who sign multi-year contracts when they are age 35 or older (calculated on June 30 of the season the contract begins) count toward the cap under all circumstances, regardless of where (or if) the player is playing. The only cap relief is $100,000 from the player’s cap hit if he is assigned to the minors after the first year of the contract or in the event of a buyout.” ( Raphael Diaz will also become a UFA if not signed by free agent deadline day. So with all three defensemen going through contract negotiations lets go through how good they actually are, via advanced stats.

Let’s take a look at some of their statistics:

P.K. Subban 22 3 16 19 7 20 2 0 73 4.1
Andrei Markov 22 2 10 12 9 10 1 1 40 5
Raphael Diaz 2 0 7 7 2 8 0 0 20 0

PK Subban is currently on pace for 71 points (11 goals, 60 assists), Andrei Markov is currently on pace for 44 points (7 goals, 37 assists) and Raphael Diaz is on pace for 26 points (0 goals, 26 assists).

These numbers could very easily be blown out of proportion because it just projects there current point production over the full 82 game season. Obviously injuries cold streaks and what not are not factored in here so lets just hope for the best.

Now let’s dive a little deeper and take a look at their goals for percentage (GF%), goals for percentage relative to the team’s GF% with player not on the ice. Corsi for percentage (CF%), corsi for percentage relative to the team’s CF% with player not on the ice. Fenwick for percentage (FF%), fenwick for percentage relative to the team’s FF% with player not on the ice. Shots for percentage (SF%), shots for percentage relative to the team’s SF% with player not on the ice. 

To further understand what Corsi and Fenwick mean visit the Matchsticks & Gasoline, Calgary Flames blog on SBNation.

All numbers are based production on-ice all situations (5-on-5, 5-on-5 Tied and 5-on-5 Close).

Player GF% GF% Rel CF% CF% Rel FF% FF% Rel SF% SF% Rel
P.K. Subban 67.8% +28.3% 59.4% +18.3% 59.1% +15.7% 58.5% +17.1%

PK Subban boasts some pretty good numbers here and clearly indicates how effective he is while on the ice compared to when he is not on the ice. Let’s compare them to Erik Karlsson’s number just for the sake of contract talk and how close the two have been analyzed over and over.

Player GF% GF% Rel CF% CF% Rel FF% FF% Rel SF% SF% Rel
Erik Karlsson 55% +12.9% 56.8% +15.8% 54.6% +15.3% 54% +14.5%

Subban’s numbers look a bit more appealing than Karlsson’s especially the GF% of a +28.3% compared to a +12.9%, thats a +/- of +15.4 for Subban and -15.4 for Karlsson. They also have very similar FF% numbers with Subban at +15.7 and Karlsson at +15.3.

Player GF% GF% Rel CF% CF% Rel FF% FF% Rel SF% SF% Rel
Andrei Markov 67.8% +28.3% 56.2% +12.7% 56.9% +11.5% 56.7% +13.6%

Andrei Markov displays the exact same GF% through the same amount of games as Subban has, I guess most of that has to do with the two being line-mates.  Markov’s other numbers are a lot lower than Subban’s in the other categories but are slightly below Karlsson’s.

Player GF% GF% Rel CF% CF% Rel FF% FF% Rel SF% SF% Rel
Raphael Diaz 48% -10.4% 44.6% -6.4% 46.7% -5.5% 44% -7.5%

Diaz has all negatives across the board but then again these stats don’t display everything about a player.

We will look in to the player usage and player deployment numbers in the next part to dissect better as to what is between the three as they are all up for new contracts.

-All statistic information was gathered through the Extra Skater. To learn more about advanced hockey statistics visit Understanding Advanced Stats on SBNation

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